Your wise friend was wrong. Analyzing the viral post about influenza and Armistice celebrations.
This message has gone viral, warning people about the potential impact of easing up on social distancing restrictions too early:
The post appeared without naming the location. Yet, I have yet to identify where this information would have been true. The timeline does not make sense. Summer was not the deadliest time for the “Spanish Flu.” Fall was, peaking in October in both Europe and the U.S. The 3rd wave returned the following Spring, not immediately after armistice celebrations.
Furthermore, many countries did not implement “social distancing” measures because of turmoil due to the war. No one called it that either. Selective quarantine did occur in some places, but it was reactive, not proactive. In other words, even cities and states praised for the best responses didn’t shut down until cases had already emerged. Plans for reopening were already in place when the war ended.
As far as the deaths from war versus disease, it actually depends on the country. More Americans died from disease than combat. However, in England, approximately 700,000 people died from war, whereas 228,000 from influenza/pneumonia.
Besides the misinformation conveyed here, we need to take any comparisons between past epidemics and our current crisis with a grain of salt. This is not 1918 (or 1957–58, 1968, or 2009). We can certainly learn from the past from credible sources, but our technology, resources, and world are not the same.
Thank you to the folks who helped me track down the photo and original post. Iric Nathanson’s article contextualizes this photo.